* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 11/10/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 32 33 37 42 47 49 54 60 66 73 79 84 85 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 32 33 37 42 47 49 54 60 66 73 79 84 85 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 26 25 25 26 26 26 28 32 37 42 48 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 18 19 20 14 14 18 14 15 8 4 6 3 4 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 2 1 1 2 -2 -5 -5 -4 3 1 1 6 1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 326 301 298 302 312 275 254 252 260 266 305 256 307 237 182 170 145 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.2 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 144 145 145 145 146 147 149 153 153 154 151 151 155 153 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 134 132 133 132 133 133 135 137 144 144 147 145 146 148 145 138 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 8 7 8 7 8 7 8 7 8 7 8 6 7 700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 64 61 61 63 61 59 60 59 57 55 60 62 68 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 10 9 9 8 9 9 10 12 13 15 17 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 28 43 46 42 53 58 65 68 66 54 48 48 68 65 81 100 101 200 MB DIV 90 82 63 27 17 19 19 25 13 30 49 26 22 30 48 50 47 700-850 TADV 4 -2 0 -5 -2 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 0 -1 1 0 4 6 LAND (KM) 225 215 226 256 283 322 337 325 316 274 261 312 379 369 374 377 281 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.0 16.0 15.8 15.6 15.2 15.0 15.0 15.0 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.5 67.2 67.6 67.9 68.1 68.6 69.1 69.6 70.2 71.1 72.2 73.5 75.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 5 5 7 8 9 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 46 46 45 44 44 45 50 57 64 67 56 53 53 62 57 46 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 750 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 25. 29. 32. 35. 37. 39. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 1. -1. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 12. 17. 22. 24. 29. 35. 41. 48. 54. 59. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.9 66.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 11/10/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.47 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.73 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 15.2% 11.0% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 7.8% 3.7% 2.1% 0.8% 3.9% 4.5% 15.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% Consensus: 2.3% 7.8% 4.9% 3.5% 0.3% 1.3% 4.6% 5.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 11/10/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 11/10/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 32 33 37 42 47 49 54 60 66 73 79 84 85 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 30 31 35 40 45 47 52 58 64 71 77 82 83 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 25 26 30 35 40 42 47 53 59 66 72 77 78 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 19 23 28 33 35 40 46 52 59 65 70 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT