* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 11/10/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 34 39 43 47 50 49 52 53 59 64 69 71 71 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 34 39 43 47 50 49 52 53 59 64 69 71 71 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 28 28 26 25 25 26 28 31 33 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 17 14 18 22 17 18 23 22 23 18 14 12 9 13 18 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 -4 -6 -8 -5 -3 -2 0 0 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 343 339 312 306 311 302 275 253 267 258 266 253 271 231 227 213 217 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 145 144 143 144 145 143 145 147 151 151 150 151 151 150 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 138 133 131 129 130 132 130 134 136 144 146 146 148 144 140 138 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 8 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 8 8 8 6 700-500 MB RH 72 71 72 71 67 63 63 62 59 56 56 54 50 49 49 52 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 6 7 6 8 10 9 9 9 8 9 9 11 11 13 12 14 850 MB ENV VOR 31 42 53 58 64 71 68 76 54 56 52 48 49 55 54 44 36 200 MB DIV 57 88 93 74 40 19 25 9 9 13 13 20 4 4 32 34 28 700-850 TADV 1 4 2 0 0 0 -1 -4 -2 -6 -3 0 1 0 1 2 1 LAND (KM) 415 389 363 349 336 324 300 256 212 181 200 138 156 13 164 317 325 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.6 16.1 16.5 16.4 16.5 16.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.0 65.8 66.1 66.3 66.4 66.5 66.7 66.9 67.5 68.4 70.0 72.0 74.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 6 3 2 1 1 2 2 5 6 9 12 13 14 11 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 40 46 47 47 46 46 46 45 46 50 62 52 69 44 75 100 69 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 778 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 34. 37. 38. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. -0. -3. -6. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. 3. 1. 2. 0. 2. 2. 3. 1. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 14. 18. 23. 25. 24. 27. 28. 34. 39. 44. 46. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.3 65.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 11/10/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.41 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.21 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.74 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.46 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 14.8% 10.6% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 10.6% 4.8% 4.0% 1.9% 6.2% 6.0% 8.4% Bayesian: 1.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% Consensus: 2.9% 8.9% 5.3% 4.0% 0.6% 2.3% 4.9% 3.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 11/10/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 11/10/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 31 34 39 43 47 50 49 52 53 59 64 69 71 71 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 32 37 41 45 48 47 50 51 57 62 67 69 69 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 31 35 39 42 41 44 45 51 56 61 63 63 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 27 31 34 33 36 37 43 48 53 55 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT