* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 09/18/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 39 39 39 34 30 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 39 39 39 34 30 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 37 38 38 36 32 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 9 11 16 24 30 39 45 54 54 48 32 11 9 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 5 2 3 5 1 7 3 -3 -2 -5 -2 -2 -3 -7 -9 SHEAR DIR 23 341 306 292 267 264 262 241 246 230 227 214 191 186 190 298 309 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.4 27.4 26.1 25.4 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 134 137 138 136 131 123 125 125 125 127 130 130 115 109 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 134 134 137 136 132 123 112 114 115 114 115 116 113 98 92 85 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -55.1 -55.3 -55.4 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 65 63 63 65 69 69 71 68 65 63 61 64 64 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 12 10 9 9 8 7 5 3 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 48 52 50 53 44 24 1 -4 -13 -21 -31 -51 -70 -52 -43 -48 200 MB DIV 31 29 33 16 0 24 24 42 44 64 16 0 34 15 1 9 32 700-850 TADV -9 -9 -5 0 5 11 6 -5 0 6 8 11 21 13 14 9 13 LAND (KM) 1563 1691 1819 1857 1904 1904 1920 1980 2084 2270 2414 2453 2195 1931 1762 1658 1556 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.1 12.6 13.2 13.9 15.6 17.2 18.5 19.9 21.8 23.9 26.5 29.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.6 32.9 34.2 35.5 36.6 38.4 39.9 40.7 40.9 40.6 40.4 40.6 41.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 13 13 11 9 6 8 10 12 14 14 13 10 10 13 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 8 12 16 26 12 5 7 6 5 16 6 7 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):279/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 24. 23. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -10. -18. -27. -32. -35. -35. -34. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -13. -15. -19. -21. -23. -22. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. -1. -5. -11. -17. -22. -23. -24. -20. -17. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.7 31.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 09/18/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.75 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.65 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 19.4% 13.8% 10.4% 9.1% 11.1% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 8.2% 19.4% 12.7% 5.4% 2.8% 8.1% 4.0% 1.3% Bayesian: 1.6% 5.2% 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 5.3% 14.7% 9.7% 5.3% 4.0% 6.9% 4.9% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 09/18/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 38 39 39 39 34 30 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 37 37 37 32 28 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 33 33 28 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 26 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT