* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 09/18/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 42 44 44 45 42 39 31 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 42 44 44 45 42 39 31 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 41 43 45 44 40 35 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 7 7 9 19 28 32 44 49 59 55 42 33 25 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 4 5 4 5 2 5 3 -3 -6 -6 -6 0 -3 -1 -7 SHEAR DIR 28 18 350 326 289 258 260 247 239 237 231 216 203 169 150 191 291 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.9 27.7 27.5 26.9 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.8 27.2 26.9 25.7 23.5 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 132 132 137 134 131 122 123 122 121 124 129 125 112 95 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 132 132 137 131 125 113 112 112 111 114 118 111 97 83 80 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -54.4 -55.0 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 63 65 62 66 67 71 71 71 65 65 59 59 57 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 13 13 11 11 10 10 9 8 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 48 47 48 44 38 35 7 0 -5 -29 -41 -63 -70 -101 -78 -79 200 MB DIV 27 41 44 40 19 18 29 48 43 61 29 14 5 7 1 1 -8 700-850 TADV -8 -10 -9 -8 0 7 9 3 0 8 17 18 20 17 14 19 26 LAND (KM) 1422 1548 1685 1817 1839 1920 1921 1965 2063 2223 2352 2349 2227 1894 1678 1576 1539 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.5 11.9 12.4 13.0 14.8 16.6 18.1 19.5 21.2 23.4 26.2 29.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.1 31.4 32.8 34.2 35.4 37.5 39.2 40.4 40.7 40.5 39.8 39.6 39.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 14 14 13 11 8 7 10 12 16 18 16 14 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 6 8 13 23 15 4 5 4 2 6 5 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. 22. 21. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -1. -6. -14. -23. -30. -35. -38. -40. -39. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -22. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 7. 4. -4. -11. -17. -21. -26. -26. -23. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.2 30.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 09/18/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.80 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.63 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 25.5% 15.6% 11.6% 10.2% 12.3% 12.5% 0.0% Logistic: 11.3% 28.0% 19.2% 6.7% 3.3% 11.1% 8.5% 2.2% Bayesian: 2.9% 8.0% 4.3% 0.4% 0.1% 4.2% 4.5% 0.4% Consensus: 7.2% 20.5% 13.0% 6.2% 4.5% 9.2% 8.5% 0.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 09/18/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 40 42 44 44 45 42 39 31 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 40 40 41 38 35 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 35 36 33 30 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 27 28 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT