* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 09/18/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 44 47 48 51 50 48 42 37 29 26 22 25 29 31 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 44 47 48 51 50 48 42 37 29 26 22 25 29 31 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 42 45 47 50 50 46 41 35 29 24 19 16 15 16 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 11 7 9 15 25 30 34 43 53 52 39 18 10 7 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 5 5 7 5 5 3 3 1 -6 -8 -7 2 -2 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 28 25 13 360 325 274 270 269 236 234 227 225 218 189 172 299 305 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.3 26.7 25.8 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 132 132 134 135 132 125 123 122 124 127 131 130 122 113 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 132 132 132 134 134 127 117 112 112 113 117 119 115 106 97 92 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -54.5 -54.9 -55.6 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 62 65 65 64 64 63 64 66 69 71 69 66 62 59 53 54 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 12 13 12 12 11 10 10 9 7 6 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 51 57 54 57 57 42 38 10 8 -3 -20 -45 -82 -88 -61 -48 200 MB DIV 32 29 62 52 36 18 24 50 55 52 63 -3 -9 20 -12 29 26 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -9 -9 -7 8 13 7 2 2 8 18 16 14 16 13 2 LAND (KM) 1315 1451 1590 1729 1841 1914 1896 1915 1987 2102 2298 2509 2298 1961 1678 1465 1271 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.3 12.8 14.2 16.1 17.6 19.0 20.4 22.5 25.0 28.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.1 30.5 31.9 33.3 34.7 37.1 39.0 40.5 41.2 41.3 41.2 41.3 42.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 14 12 9 7 8 11 14 15 15 13 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 9 6 5 6 9 18 18 5 5 6 4 8 9 7 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 24. 23. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -9. -17. -23. -27. -29. -29. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. -12. -16. -16. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 12. 13. 16. 15. 13. 8. 2. -6. -9. -13. -10. -6. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.3 29.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 09/18/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.81 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.63 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 20.1% 14.1% 10.0% 8.4% 11.5% 13.2% 16.3% Logistic: 7.9% 27.6% 17.0% 4.9% 2.3% 9.6% 6.2% 5.1% Bayesian: 2.8% 2.9% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1.7% 1.6% 0.8% Consensus: 5.6% 16.8% 10.8% 5.0% 3.6% 7.6% 7.0% 7.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 09/18/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 42 44 47 48 51 50 48 42 37 29 26 22 25 29 31 18HR AGO 35 34 38 40 43 44 47 46 44 38 33 25 22 18 21 25 27 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 36 37 40 39 37 31 26 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 29 32 31 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT