* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 09/17/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 29 32 36 34 31 26 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 29 32 36 34 31 26 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 10 10 7 13 22 31 32 41 43 47 45 38 28 15 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 11 8 7 6 5 0 7 0 0 0 0 -6 -4 -6 -7 SHEAR DIR 24 19 11 5 340 290 263 273 247 250 254 247 235 236 220 294 313 SST (C) 27.5 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.5 27.8 27.5 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.4 27.3 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 130 135 133 130 132 136 131 124 124 123 122 123 128 131 130 128 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 135 133 130 132 135 127 117 113 110 110 111 116 119 115 111 105 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -54.2 -54.2 -54.6 -55.0 -55.9 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 63 63 65 64 62 64 60 66 65 67 64 68 66 66 63 63 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 11 11 10 9 9 10 8 8 7 7 5 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 28 45 58 50 35 31 23 17 -8 -7 -33 -49 -59 -69 -86 -55 200 MB DIV 34 31 38 62 44 13 7 26 59 22 40 20 -1 6 31 4 -16 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -8 -5 -3 6 13 14 1 -2 2 6 18 19 11 14 14 LAND (KM) 1136 1246 1384 1542 1704 1970 1957 1952 1958 1976 2050 2177 2370 2471 2231 2044 1943 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.8 12.1 12.6 13.1 14.4 16.2 17.8 18.9 19.7 20.7 22.0 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.4 28.6 30.0 31.6 33.2 36.1 38.3 40.2 41.5 42.3 42.6 42.5 42.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 15 16 16 14 13 11 7 5 6 8 11 13 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 7 9 7 5 7 14 19 5 6 9 18 8 11 20 7 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 28. 30. 31. 32. 32. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. -2. -8. -16. -22. -27. -32. -35. -35. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -12. -14. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 9. 6. 1. -3. -8. -12. -14. -11. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 27.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 09/17/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.71 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 15.6% 11.2% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 4.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.2% 2.2% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 6.9% 4.3% 2.7% 0.0% 0.5% 4.1% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 09/17/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 28 29 32 36 34 31 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 28 31 35 33 30 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 24 27 31 29 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 20 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT