* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 09/17/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 30 36 41 45 48 48 44 41 37 29 25 22 24 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 30 36 41 45 48 48 44 41 37 29 25 22 24 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 32 34 36 35 32 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 13 15 16 13 8 11 18 23 33 42 52 53 43 32 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 5 2 2 2 5 5 8 5 1 0 2 0 6 6 SHEAR DIR 35 37 50 43 41 41 344 268 277 256 247 248 238 233 225 207 175 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 128 131 136 138 138 137 139 135 131 129 124 121 119 121 123 130 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 131 136 138 138 137 139 132 127 122 114 111 108 110 112 116 112 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 68 64 65 68 70 69 69 65 65 64 69 68 72 65 63 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 11 10 8 8 8 7 6 6 4 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 22 36 47 49 54 44 39 37 20 -6 -20 -28 -37 -62 -92 -115 200 MB DIV 12 4 18 31 32 46 21 -12 3 18 32 38 7 -9 4 3 0 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -7 -10 -12 -8 0 4 4 7 4 6 0 19 17 14 11 LAND (KM) 1046 1162 1285 1417 1550 1685 1673 1733 1734 1792 1899 2029 2184 2336 2436 2465 2279 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.9 11.7 12.9 14.4 16.0 17.5 19.0 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.2 27.3 28.5 29.8 31.1 33.7 36.3 38.2 39.4 40.3 40.6 40.6 40.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 10 10 8 7 8 8 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 12 11 9 10 19 14 13 8 5 4 3 3 5 12 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -4. -9. -15. -22. -28. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -9. -10. -11. -14. -14. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 23. 19. 16. 12. 4. -0. -3. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.3 26.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 09/17/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.73 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 15.8% 11.3% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 17.1% 10.7% 3.2% 1.8% 5.0% 8.6% 22.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.1% 6.2% Consensus: 2.8% 11.4% 7.4% 3.8% 0.6% 1.7% 6.7% 9.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 09/17/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 28 30 36 41 45 48 48 44 41 37 29 25 22 24 18HR AGO 25 24 24 26 28 34 39 43 46 46 42 39 35 27 23 20 22 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 36 40 43 43 39 36 32 24 20 17 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 28 32 35 35 31 28 24 16 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT