* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 09/17/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 29 33 39 42 43 45 43 41 38 36 36 41 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 29 33 39 42 43 45 43 41 38 36 36 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 31 32 30 27 24 20 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 12 16 17 21 11 6 21 25 27 40 34 33 24 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 4 6 4 0 4 2 5 3 7 -2 1 5 4 11 9 SHEAR DIR 35 38 36 38 34 32 23 290 288 283 251 243 247 258 233 240 133 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.6 27.9 27.9 27.8 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.7 27.0 27.3 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 132 136 136 136 141 136 131 130 128 125 124 120 123 127 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 126 132 136 136 136 141 134 127 124 118 114 113 108 110 113 117 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -54.0 -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -54.1 -53.9 -53.5 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 66 65 63 63 66 66 66 66 61 61 62 66 66 65 62 57 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 4 3 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 19 24 40 53 46 34 49 41 42 35 13 -15 -32 -49 -69 -108 200 MB DIV 31 32 18 7 2 8 2 -10 -6 16 39 30 24 -20 -27 -16 -18 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -6 -8 -8 -8 0 3 2 7 7 3 2 1 11 13 9 LAND (KM) 943 1055 1173 1301 1432 1717 1734 1757 1687 1695 1780 1870 1979 2113 2249 2399 2474 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.5 12.1 13.0 14.2 15.6 17.2 18.5 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.3 26.4 27.6 28.9 30.2 33.0 35.7 38.0 39.8 41.2 42.0 42.3 42.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 14 13 11 10 9 7 7 7 8 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 8 11 9 8 20 15 10 7 9 8 10 9 7 13 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. -1. -4. -9. -12. -16. -18. -18. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 0. 0. 4. 8. 14. 17. 18. 20. 18. 16. 13. 11. 11. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.6 25.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 09/17/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.19 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.71 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.70 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 13.5% 9.7% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 7.1% 3.6% 0.6% 0.3% 1.3% 5.3% 14.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 2.9% Consensus: 2.1% 7.3% 4.5% 2.4% 0.1% 0.5% 4.8% 5.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 09/17/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 25 25 29 33 39 42 43 45 43 41 38 36 36 41 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 24 28 32 38 41 42 44 42 40 37 35 35 40 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 25 29 35 38 39 41 39 37 34 32 32 37 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 19 23 29 32 33 35 33 31 28 26 26 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT