* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 09/16/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 31 36 43 48 50 53 51 50 51 50 51 52 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 31 36 43 48 50 53 51 50 51 50 51 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 29 31 33 35 37 38 36 32 29 26 25 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 9 10 12 18 13 11 12 18 19 26 30 25 17 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 7 9 3 1 -2 1 4 5 6 3 -1 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 33 34 37 35 35 39 29 347 287 298 275 245 262 272 293 311 349 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.6 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.1 26.6 27.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 128 133 138 139 137 137 136 131 130 130 129 125 120 125 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 127 128 133 138 139 137 137 135 127 124 122 121 117 111 115 123 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -53.7 -52.7 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 0.1 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 69 69 69 64 65 70 65 66 61 63 63 62 58 55 50 49 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 9 7 6 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 17 27 20 22 33 54 42 42 48 48 52 36 4 -19 -40 -60 -96 200 MB DIV 0 46 68 58 54 25 -2 -21 -9 9 55 53 23 1 -6 -19 -22 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -5 -8 -10 -7 -2 3 0 0 5 0 -6 -8 -4 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 822 921 1035 1172 1315 1622 1672 1648 1515 1426 1422 1447 1475 1505 1502 1450 1375 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.8 11.3 11.8 12.5 13.5 14.7 15.9 16.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.0 25.0 26.1 27.4 28.8 31.9 35.0 38.0 40.4 42.5 44.1 45.3 46.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 12 13 14 16 15 14 11 11 9 8 8 9 10 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 7 9 12 9 15 13 14 8 9 16 19 11 7 13 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. 35. 35. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -8. -12. -14. -14. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 12. 18. 23. 25. 28. 26. 25. 26. 25. 26. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 24.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 09/16/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.71 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.70 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 17.0% 12.1% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 15.0% 7.2% 1.5% 0.8% 2.6% 5.8% 17.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.6% 6.5% Consensus: 2.7% 11.2% 6.6% 3.3% 0.3% 0.9% 6.0% 8.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 09/16/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 28 31 36 43 48 50 53 51 50 51 50 51 52 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 26 29 34 41 46 48 51 49 48 49 48 49 50 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 25 30 37 42 44 47 45 44 45 44 45 46 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 18 23 30 35 37 40 38 37 38 37 38 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT