* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 09/16/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 33 39 46 52 55 59 63 65 64 63 64 65 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 33 39 46 52 55 59 63 65 64 63 64 65 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 48 46 42 39 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 11 13 13 13 20 14 9 14 17 14 21 23 27 19 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 1 -1 0 3 5 2 2 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 48 61 43 49 41 46 44 35 355 330 325 291 265 264 276 290 265 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.9 28.0 28.1 27.9 28.0 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.5 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 128 130 136 138 140 137 138 135 138 141 138 137 133 131 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 126 127 130 136 138 140 137 138 135 136 136 132 130 127 124 127 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -54.2 -54.3 -53.9 -53.4 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -0.5 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 73 74 74 73 67 68 68 68 66 61 62 63 58 56 54 55 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 21 24 26 30 42 41 39 34 28 33 30 15 -1 -19 -33 -63 200 MB DIV -9 3 35 45 18 48 -2 -5 -39 -11 12 65 50 49 -4 4 -5 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -5 -5 -6 -6 -1 2 -1 -3 0 2 -4 -8 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 837 923 1028 1144 1259 1543 1590 1506 1440 1260 1171 1148 1162 1191 1197 1175 1092 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.3 10.8 11.5 12.3 13.2 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.0 24.9 25.9 27.0 28.1 30.8 33.8 36.9 40.0 42.6 44.7 46.2 47.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 14 15 15 15 12 10 7 7 7 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 7 9 12 10 11 13 15 14 25 35 32 28 17 23 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 25. 28. 31. 34. 36. 37. 38. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 14. 21. 27. 30. 34. 38. 40. 39. 38. 39. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.6 24.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 09/16/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.69 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 16.4% 11.8% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 27.5% 15.6% 4.2% 3.4% 8.5% 11.4% 31.4% Bayesian: 0.6% 6.9% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 14.9% Consensus: 3.6% 16.9% 9.6% 4.3% 1.2% 3.0% 7.4% 15.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 09/16/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 30 33 39 46 52 55 59 63 65 64 63 64 65 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 28 31 37 44 50 53 57 61 63 62 61 62 63 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 27 33 40 46 49 53 57 59 58 57 58 59 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 25 32 38 41 45 49 51 50 49 50 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT