* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 09/16/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 44 51 56 60 60 63 62 60 57 57 59 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 44 51 56 60 60 63 62 60 57 57 59 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 31 35 39 42 45 47 48 45 40 36 33 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 10 13 14 12 18 14 13 12 18 17 24 22 24 24 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -2 0 3 0 5 0 0 5 9 4 3 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 45 49 44 37 34 40 35 32 357 314 308 286 263 263 281 308 315 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.1 27.6 27.8 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 131 132 135 137 135 136 136 140 132 134 136 132 131 131 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 130 132 135 137 135 136 136 140 132 129 128 121 120 121 122 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -53.4 -52.8 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 9 9 8 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 73 74 78 77 76 71 70 68 68 62 62 61 61 59 57 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 10 11 9 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 17 33 31 32 33 37 41 47 50 34 34 30 15 -2 -19 -30 -30 200 MB DIV 4 -6 11 51 45 35 68 21 -6 -9 12 52 30 32 5 1 5 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -3 -5 -4 -9 -7 -1 2 2 4 4 1 -8 -9 0 LAND (KM) 828 928 1009 1105 1201 1414 1617 1519 1522 1458 1364 1372 1402 1436 1444 1405 1354 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.9 9.2 9.7 10.6 11.8 13.1 14.6 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 23.6 24.6 25.4 26.3 27.2 29.3 31.9 34.7 37.7 40.5 42.9 44.7 45.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 9 9 12 13 15 16 14 13 10 8 6 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 9 10 13 17 10 11 12 18 9 14 32 29 23 20 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 25. 28. 31. 34. 36. 36. 37. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 19. 26. 31. 35. 35. 38. 37. 35. 32. 32. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.9 23.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 09/16/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.71 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 17.0% 12.3% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 19.8% 9.3% 1.6% 1.3% 3.9% 5.7% 16.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 5.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 3.4% Consensus: 2.7% 14.1% 7.4% 3.6% 0.4% 1.4% 5.4% 6.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 09/16/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 37 44 51 56 60 60 63 62 60 57 57 59 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 35 42 49 54 58 58 61 60 58 55 55 57 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 37 44 49 53 53 56 55 53 50 50 52 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 29 36 41 45 45 48 47 45 42 42 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT