* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 09/16/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 34 41 46 52 57 61 67 71 73 73 74 74 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 34 41 46 52 57 61 67 71 73 73 74 74 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 41 46 51 56 60 62 62 60 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 15 17 16 15 13 13 12 13 13 14 11 15 15 19 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -4 -3 -1 4 3 3 -4 -4 0 3 3 2 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 41 42 41 50 45 60 55 67 40 24 356 345 304 284 276 277 284 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.6 28.0 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 131 130 131 137 135 137 140 141 145 144 140 136 135 136 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 131 131 129 130 137 135 137 140 141 145 144 135 129 127 128 128 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 70 73 75 79 77 72 71 70 69 67 63 60 60 55 53 51 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 11 9 9 9 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 14 13 27 28 25 42 42 45 42 42 23 26 9 -12 -13 -9 -13 200 MB DIV 25 2 -16 -8 25 12 45 23 -2 -22 -3 -3 36 46 41 -2 5 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 -6 -1 0 1 1 -1 0 0 0 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 732 819 913 1004 1097 1309 1573 1501 1415 1387 1195 1071 1024 986 1002 993 1006 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 8.9 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.9 8.9 9.0 9.4 9.9 10.6 11.3 12.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.6 23.5 24.5 25.4 26.3 28.3 30.8 33.6 36.7 39.8 42.6 44.9 46.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 11 13 14 16 15 13 10 7 5 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 10 9 9 17 11 12 16 20 22 36 35 25 22 21 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 25. 29. 31. 34. 37. 38. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 11. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 16. 21. 27. 32. 36. 42. 46. 48. 48. 49. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.9 22.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 09/16/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.70 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 15.6% 11.3% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 13.8% 6.2% 1.1% 0.9% 3.6% 8.9% 17.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 9.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 1.3% 5.9% Consensus: 2.5% 12.9% 6.1% 3.2% 0.3% 1.3% 6.6% 7.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 09/16/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 29 34 41 46 52 57 61 67 71 73 73 74 74 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 32 39 44 50 55 59 65 69 71 71 72 72 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 28 35 40 46 51 55 61 65 67 67 68 68 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 21 28 33 39 44 48 54 58 60 60 61 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT