* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 09/15/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 33 40 45 51 55 61 66 72 75 75 75 75 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 33 40 45 51 55 61 66 72 75 75 75 75 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 41 47 54 60 66 68 67 63 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 16 19 20 20 9 8 8 12 12 12 10 15 16 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -1 -3 -8 -6 5 8 4 -2 -6 -1 0 1 2 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 57 28 35 43 40 52 74 73 55 20 10 352 310 288 279 272 277 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.7 28.0 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 130 130 130 133 138 136 137 142 143 145 142 138 136 136 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 129 129 129 133 138 136 137 142 143 145 140 133 129 129 131 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 72 71 74 76 77 75 70 71 67 69 63 60 58 56 51 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 10 9 10 11 9 10 8 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 25 21 19 29 28 34 45 43 48 55 42 31 25 12 -16 -24 -22 200 MB DIV 17 27 -3 -29 -23 13 48 61 14 -14 -13 -14 31 30 37 13 23 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -4 -2 -2 -3 -5 -7 -3 1 2 1 -1 0 0 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 640 717 804 888 980 1170 1411 1587 1461 1402 1300 1127 1036 987 967 973 958 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.3 9.6 10.3 11.0 11.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 21.6 22.5 23.4 24.3 25.2 27.0 29.3 32.1 35.1 38.3 41.2 43.8 45.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 10 12 15 15 16 14 12 9 7 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 11 9 8 11 17 10 13 20 21 28 37 28 21 20 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 34. 37. 38. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 15. 20. 26. 30. 36. 41. 47. 50. 50. 50. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.9 21.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 09/15/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.52 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.69 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 16.6% 12.1% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 19.2% 10.3% 2.5% 2.3% 7.0% 10.7% 19.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 8.4% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 7.9% Consensus: 3.2% 14.7% 7.9% 4.0% 0.8% 2.5% 6.8% 9.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 09/15/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 30 33 40 45 51 55 61 66 72 75 75 75 75 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 31 38 43 49 53 59 64 70 73 73 73 73 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 27 34 39 45 49 55 60 66 69 69 69 69 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 27 32 38 42 48 53 59 62 62 62 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT