* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 09/15/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 31 37 44 52 60 66 70 73 78 82 82 81 80 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 31 37 44 52 60 66 70 73 78 82 82 81 80 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 40 47 55 63 69 72 74 72 69 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 11 13 14 15 11 9 7 8 5 11 12 13 8 14 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 0 -3 -5 0 3 2 3 -4 -2 3 6 2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 63 54 30 41 47 51 73 70 62 15 356 351 341 316 280 289 294 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 28.0 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 131 130 130 130 138 134 137 139 142 143 143 140 137 137 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 132 130 129 130 130 138 134 137 139 142 143 142 135 131 131 135 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 11 11 700-500 MB RH 73 72 70 76 78 75 72 70 69 70 67 63 58 55 50 49 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 35 26 24 21 33 32 47 46 59 70 64 42 31 19 -7 -19 -33 200 MB DIV 27 25 38 4 -10 53 58 75 49 27 -3 3 7 62 31 0 -1 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -4 -2 0 -2 -1 -6 -4 -3 0 -1 -3 1 0 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 538 589 664 745 844 1052 1284 1557 1515 1431 1397 1199 1085 1040 998 994 975 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.2 9.1 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.6 10.2 11.0 11.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 20.4 21.1 22.0 22.9 23.9 25.9 28.1 30.7 33.7 36.9 40.1 42.9 45.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 9 10 10 12 14 15 16 16 13 10 7 7 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 11 10 9 9 16 11 11 15 19 22 36 33 22 21 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 34. 37. 38. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 12. 19. 27. 35. 41. 45. 48. 53. 57. 57. 56. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.9 20.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 09/15/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.69 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 16.6% 12.0% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% Logistic: 6.4% 26.0% 14.0% 4.0% 4.0% 11.8% 17.3% 30.3% Bayesian: 1.2% 9.4% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 1.5% 0.6% 21.2% Consensus: 4.2% 17.4% 9.3% 4.4% 1.4% 4.4% 9.5% 17.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 09/15/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 29 31 37 44 52 60 66 70 73 78 82 82 81 80 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 34 41 49 57 63 67 70 75 79 79 78 77 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 30 37 45 53 59 63 66 71 75 75 74 73 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 30 38 46 52 56 59 64 68 68 67 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT