* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 09/15/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 31 33 39 45 54 61 66 71 75 78 79 77 75 74 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 31 33 39 45 54 61 66 71 75 78 79 77 75 74 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 35 38 44 51 58 68 76 80 76 68 60 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 13 15 16 19 11 6 4 4 8 8 16 17 23 21 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -5 0 0 -5 -3 3 8 0 -2 1 3 3 4 5 0 SHEAR DIR 68 54 62 37 41 46 96 42 26 50 353 334 309 281 265 265 261 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.5 27.7 27.8 28.1 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 138 136 135 132 135 137 132 134 136 140 134 130 131 133 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 138 136 135 130 135 137 132 134 136 140 134 127 125 126 131 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -53.1 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 72 75 79 77 73 73 72 73 66 64 58 55 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 10 9 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 22 25 20 22 27 41 45 53 47 66 75 58 31 18 -6 -26 -42 200 MB DIV 24 27 26 32 -1 8 78 87 58 25 24 20 19 31 47 39 36 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -3 0 -1 -1 -6 -7 -2 -2 -1 -3 -2 -4 -7 -8 LAND (KM) 531 593 673 757 853 1027 1192 1403 1588 1491 1491 1483 1361 1327 1289 1270 1243 LAT (DEG N) 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.7 8.4 8.3 8.6 9.2 10.2 11.5 12.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 20.0 20.9 21.9 22.8 23.8 25.5 27.0 29.0 31.5 34.2 37.1 40.0 42.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 7 8 11 14 14 15 14 13 11 9 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 16 16 14 11 14 21 9 9 11 18 12 11 29 34 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 25. 28. 31. 34. 36. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. 10. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 8. 14. 20. 29. 36. 41. 46. 50. 53. 54. 52. 50. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.6 20.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 09/15/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.76 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 17.7% 12.6% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 0.0% Logistic: 8.2% 32.5% 17.8% 5.0% 4.9% 12.8% 22.8% 40.7% Bayesian: 2.2% 14.9% 3.6% 0.4% 0.2% 2.7% 8.0% 36.7% Consensus: 5.3% 21.7% 11.3% 4.8% 1.7% 5.1% 13.7% 25.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 09/15/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 31 33 39 45 54 61 66 71 75 78 79 77 75 74 18HR AGO 25 24 27 28 30 36 42 51 58 63 68 72 75 76 74 72 71 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 30 36 45 52 57 62 66 69 70 68 66 65 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 29 38 45 50 55 59 62 63 61 59 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT