* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 09/15/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 36 41 47 54 61 67 72 76 79 77 74 72 69 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 36 41 47 54 61 67 72 76 79 77 74 72 69 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 35 39 43 50 58 68 77 79 72 61 51 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 15 12 14 17 18 12 4 3 5 9 17 25 27 30 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -3 -5 -2 0 -8 -3 3 1 4 3 7 6 6 6 0 SHEAR DIR 87 70 68 65 49 54 64 98 25 76 313 294 276 268 261 268 278 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.9 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.2 27.4 27.8 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 140 138 137 135 132 134 139 135 131 136 136 137 128 130 135 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 140 138 137 135 131 133 139 135 131 136 136 137 127 125 130 137 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 700-500 MB RH 72 75 73 73 72 78 81 76 75 71 72 68 63 59 55 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 12 13 11 12 11 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 12 16 20 24 20 38 52 62 57 59 65 56 30 7 -15 -43 -61 200 MB DIV -5 28 45 48 37 -30 35 46 94 53 62 4 22 21 72 37 30 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 0 0 1 -1 -1 -4 -2 -6 -6 -1 -1 -9 -11 -10 LAND (KM) 497 577 658 751 848 1033 1203 1362 1549 1519 1488 1559 1502 1475 1448 1405 1396 LAT (DEG N) 8.6 8.7 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.8 8.4 8.0 8.0 8.6 9.6 11.0 12.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 19.5 20.7 21.8 22.8 23.8 25.6 27.1 28.5 30.3 32.6 35.2 38.1 40.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 8 10 13 15 17 16 14 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 12 15 14 15 13 10 15 23 20 9 9 12 15 6 16 30 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 25. 28. 31. 34. 36. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -0. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -7. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. -0. 1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 11. 16. 22. 29. 36. 42. 47. 51. 54. 52. 49. 47. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.6 19.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 09/15/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.76 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 19.9% 14.2% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 0.0% Logistic: 8.6% 33.6% 20.0% 7.7% 6.5% 16.3% 18.2% 40.3% Bayesian: 1.5% 31.0% 6.0% 1.8% 0.5% 2.7% 2.4% 42.4% Consensus: 5.6% 28.2% 13.4% 6.7% 2.3% 6.3% 10.3% 27.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 09/15/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 31 34 36 41 47 54 61 67 72 76 79 77 74 72 69 18HR AGO 25 24 28 31 33 38 44 51 58 64 69 73 76 74 71 69 66 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 31 37 44 51 57 62 66 69 67 64 62 59 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 28 35 42 48 53 57 60 58 55 53 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT