* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 08/20/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 41 45 47 51 53 56 58 59 63 63 68 70 71 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 41 45 47 51 53 56 58 59 63 63 68 70 54 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 43 44 44 44 45 48 53 60 67 71 74 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 2 3 9 17 12 15 8 8 3 11 12 11 10 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 5 6 7 1 3 0 -2 0 -1 -4 0 -3 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 17 347 328 226 263 286 250 275 220 301 301 351 334 343 326 320 284 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.7 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.9 30.8 30.8 30.6 30.6 30.1 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 139 141 144 148 149 156 158 158 170 174 173 171 170 170 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 139 141 144 148 149 156 156 155 167 174 173 161 156 145 142 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -51.6 -51.9 -51.3 -51.8 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 10 10 11 10 9 10 7 9 700-500 MB RH 69 68 65 63 62 61 58 61 61 62 63 63 67 69 68 66 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 10 10 8 6 7 4 6 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 51 48 36 28 32 24 13 24 26 -8 -15 -57 -47 -68 -46 -71 -53 200 MB DIV 87 79 79 76 60 28 -8 6 8 4 8 3 33 26 19 5 30 700-850 TADV -8 -5 -8 -12 -14 -3 -9 -9 -11 -7 -10 -14 -3 -5 2 4 2 LAND (KM) 1096 1089 1102 1075 947 797 422 109 79 91 58 60 121 190 204 90 -63 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 19 19 19 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 14 9 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 31 23 20 33 37 50 41 66 50 52 57 69 56 46 40 33 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 31. 35. 38. 40. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. -13. -16. -14. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 15. 17. 21. 23. 26. 28. 29. 33. 33. 38. 40. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 47.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 08/20/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.91 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.73 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.49 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 28.9% 16.4% 11.6% 10.5% 12.7% 14.2% 36.2% Logistic: 3.8% 18.9% 9.0% 2.5% 0.9% 5.0% 6.5% 16.8% Bayesian: 1.4% 14.4% 6.3% 0.5% 0.2% 2.5% 4.3% 6.4% Consensus: 4.0% 20.7% 10.6% 4.9% 3.9% 6.8% 8.3% 19.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 08/20/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 08/20/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 41 45 47 51 53 56 58 59 63 63 68 70 54 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 37 41 43 47 49 52 54 55 59 59 64 66 50 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 35 37 41 43 46 48 49 53 53 58 60 44 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 28 32 34 37 39 40 44 44 49 51 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT