* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 08/19/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 40 44 50 55 57 60 65 66 70 71 74 77 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 40 44 50 55 57 60 65 66 70 71 74 77 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 35 35 35 37 40 45 51 57 64 70 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 3 5 4 15 10 16 2 8 4 9 8 11 12 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 4 3 5 7 7 1 4 1 5 -3 0 -2 -3 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 45 33 312 318 305 281 283 257 334 251 7 338 347 337 329 330 280 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.6 28.5 29.0 29.2 29.0 29.4 30.2 30.4 30.7 30.6 30.3 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 137 138 140 148 146 154 158 154 161 174 173 171 170 171 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 135 137 138 140 148 146 154 158 152 160 174 172 166 159 154 151 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 12 10 11 9 9 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 66 63 63 59 59 59 59 60 62 61 66 67 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 10 9 9 6 7 6 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 48 54 47 36 25 28 8 15 29 13 -8 -40 -55 -79 -67 -82 -63 200 MB DIV 77 101 87 73 66 42 12 -6 29 23 7 13 7 28 29 18 29 700-850 TADV -10 -10 -5 -9 -15 -5 -9 -10 -7 -13 -5 -19 -18 -11 -2 3 2 LAND (KM) 1122 1090 1087 1076 1081 844 647 295 67 17 69 23 81 159 162 171 23 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 18 19 19 17 17 18 17 18 18 15 10 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 27 30 23 21 31 40 48 47 66 38 49 58 77 53 46 35 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 33. 37. 41. 43. 46. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 1. 0. -1. -5. -7. -8. -12. -11. -13. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 19. 25. 30. 32. 35. 40. 41. 45. 46. 49. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 45.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 08/19/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.76 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.51 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 19.8% 13.9% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 24.2% 12.5% 3.2% 1.3% 4.4% 5.0% 14.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 4.6% 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 2.3% 6.2% Consensus: 3.6% 16.2% 9.4% 4.3% 0.4% 1.7% 6.8% 6.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 08/19/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 08/19/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 32 35 40 44 50 55 57 60 65 66 70 71 74 77 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 32 37 41 47 52 54 57 62 63 67 68 71 74 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 31 35 41 46 48 51 56 57 61 62 65 68 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 27 33 38 40 43 48 49 53 54 57 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT