* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 08/19/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 43 50 54 58 59 65 67 72 73 74 77 71 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 43 50 54 58 59 65 67 72 73 74 77 71 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 36 39 40 40 40 42 47 53 59 65 67 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 4 3 7 8 18 13 13 8 4 7 15 17 17 24 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 4 1 3 10 3 5 2 -1 4 -2 -2 -3 -4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 42 53 40 308 326 294 285 252 267 207 276 267 330 313 318 301 308 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.4 28.8 28.7 29.1 29.1 29.5 30.0 30.8 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 137 137 139 145 152 150 156 157 164 172 173 172 171 170 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 136 137 137 139 145 152 150 156 157 164 170 173 172 164 155 145 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.0 -52.2 -51.5 -51.8 -51.2 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 7 700-500 MB RH 71 71 69 68 66 62 61 58 56 56 56 57 57 61 62 65 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 13 12 14 13 13 10 11 9 10 9 9 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 45 47 55 50 44 28 15 11 21 21 -7 -9 -47 -53 -76 -71 -102 200 MB DIV 80 89 106 102 78 59 18 6 11 16 5 3 8 28 5 25 17 700-850 TADV -11 -13 -6 -5 -9 -16 -6 -15 -9 -13 -8 -14 -7 -5 -8 9 3 LAND (KM) 1186 1137 1090 1062 1050 953 766 479 118 59 56 33 30 131 184 202 60 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 18 17 18 19 18 18 20 20 17 15 13 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 19 24 31 23 21 58 45 39 68 49 52 63 68 56 48 39 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 33. 37. 41. 43. 46. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 8. 8. 9. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 3. 1. -3. -2. -5. -5. -7. -7. -6. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 18. 25. 29. 33. 34. 40. 42. 47. 48. 49. 52. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 44.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 08/19/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.71 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.75 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.56 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 21.1% 14.8% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.4% 27.2% 14.9% 3.7% 1.3% 5.7% 5.9% 10.5% Bayesian: 1.4% 4.0% 3.2% 0.2% 0.1% 1.9% 2.3% 6.0% Consensus: 4.5% 17.5% 11.0% 4.7% 0.5% 2.5% 7.4% 5.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 08/19/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 08/19/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 34 38 43 50 54 58 59 65 67 72 73 74 77 71 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 35 40 47 51 55 56 62 64 69 70 71 74 68 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 34 41 45 49 50 56 58 63 64 65 68 62 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 24 31 35 39 40 46 48 53 54 55 58 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT