* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 08/19/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 37 45 53 59 63 66 65 68 71 75 77 80 77 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 37 45 53 59 63 66 65 68 71 75 77 44 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 32 37 41 45 46 45 44 45 49 56 64 40 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 9 5 6 7 14 11 18 8 16 10 15 14 17 20 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 3 2 0 3 3 4 3 2 -2 -3 -6 -6 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 39 36 31 25 337 347 302 284 248 253 261 298 307 322 307 293 295 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.6 28.0 28.6 28.5 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.2 30.2 31.2 30.8 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 143 137 135 134 139 148 146 153 154 158 157 174 173 171 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 143 137 135 134 139 147 145 153 153 155 153 171 173 164 145 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 10 8 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 69 68 63 65 63 61 61 62 59 59 57 59 63 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 12 14 14 14 14 12 11 11 12 13 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 52 44 47 49 41 20 6 -10 -16 -8 -17 -25 -34 -48 -74 -53 -78 200 MB DIV 76 86 91 110 116 73 61 5 23 11 16 14 8 6 0 23 14 700-850 TADV -5 -10 -12 -7 -5 -14 -18 -18 -15 -13 -19 -7 -8 -8 0 3 7 LAND (KM) 1245 1175 1120 1082 1057 1059 952 792 563 198 137 100 140 151 0 -93 -11 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 14 15 15 16 16 16 16 18 18 17 17 17 13 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 23 25 28 34 25 18 42 45 42 65 64 51 50 58 69 11 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 36. 40. 42. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. -0. -1. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 20. 28. 34. 38. 41. 40. 43. 46. 50. 52. 55. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 42.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 08/19/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.78 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.58 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 18.2% 12.7% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% 0.0% Logistic: 6.2% 30.3% 16.6% 5.5% 2.3% 5.9% 10.2% 14.7% Bayesian: 1.1% 4.8% 2.1% 0.1% 0.2% 1.7% 15.9% 7.8% Consensus: 3.8% 17.8% 10.5% 4.6% 0.8% 2.5% 13.1% 7.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 08/19/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 08/19/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 33 37 45 53 59 63 66 65 68 71 75 77 44 33 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 34 42 50 56 60 63 62 65 68 72 74 41 30 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 37 45 51 55 58 57 60 63 67 69 36 25 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 27 35 41 45 48 47 50 53 57 59 26 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT