* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 08/19/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 49 54 58 61 65 69 75 79 82 86 88 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 49 54 58 61 65 48 44 36 32 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 42 44 46 48 39 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 7 7 8 4 10 7 12 14 12 9 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 3 3 2 0 7 3 3 0 -2 3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 59 73 71 65 37 338 286 275 228 251 194 332 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.8 28.6 28.6 29.0 29.1 29.5 30.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 139 138 135 133 137 149 148 154 156 164 175 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 139 138 135 133 137 149 148 154 156 164 175 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 73 70 70 68 65 65 63 60 59 60 61 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 56 55 54 50 30 15 13 5 9 11 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 94 78 92 109 128 71 52 15 10 25 27 0 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -8 -8 -2 -12 -14 -7 -17 -11 -11 -7 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1366 1312 1268 1226 1192 1129 1052 785 522 148 54 -44 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 14 16 19 19 20 18 17 17 19 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 23 21 19 21 20 35 43 40 64 61 44 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 26. 29. 32. 36. 40. 41. 43. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 24. 29. 33. 36. 40. 44. 50. 54. 57. 61. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 41.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 08/19/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.77 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.60 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 20.8% 14.6% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 24.5% 15.4% 6.2% 1.8% 4.8% 5.9% 9.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.7% 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 5.9% 5.1% Consensus: 3.5% 16.0% 10.6% 5.6% 0.6% 1.9% 8.4% 4.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 08/19/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 08/19/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 36 43 49 54 58 61 65 48 44 36 32 30 28 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 40 46 51 55 58 62 45 41 33 29 27 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 34 40 45 49 52 56 39 35 27 23 21 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 31 36 40 43 47 30 26 18 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT