* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 08/18/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 45 52 56 60 64 67 71 75 80 84 87 91 93 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 45 52 56 60 64 67 67 47 54 58 61 65 67 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 40 46 51 55 57 59 59 44 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 8 8 6 6 6 10 15 10 11 1 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 3 -1 4 4 1 0 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 75 77 89 89 80 292 286 260 253 237 306 254 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.8 28.5 28.7 29.1 28.9 29.7 30.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 140 140 139 134 137 148 151 156 153 167 175 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 138 139 140 139 134 137 148 151 156 153 167 175 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -52.5 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 9 10 11 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 76 73 70 69 68 63 62 56 54 52 52 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 66 58 53 49 49 27 36 35 47 25 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 77 92 79 84 102 94 61 23 23 6 6 -5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 -3 -6 -7 -2 -15 -6 -5 -2 -3 -8 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1381 1306 1236 1207 1188 1096 1066 796 549 115 27 -17 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 10 11 12 15 18 20 21 20 19 19 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 23 23 22 21 22 32 40 38 69 50 51 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 34. 37. 38. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 15. 22. 26. 30. 34. 37. 41. 45. 50. 54. 57. 61. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.3 41.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 08/18/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.73 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.54 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 39% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 29.8% 16.2% 11.3% 10.1% 13.2% 20.5% 39.2% Logistic: 9.6% 32.1% 23.7% 9.7% 2.7% 7.6% 5.7% 7.1% Bayesian: 2.6% 15.6% 13.3% 1.2% 1.2% 11.1% 19.9% 12.9% Consensus: 6.4% 25.8% 17.7% 7.4% 4.7% 10.6% 15.4% 19.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 08/18/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 08/18/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 37 41 45 52 56 60 64 67 67 47 54 58 61 65 67 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 40 47 51 55 59 62 62 42 49 53 56 60 62 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 41 45 49 53 56 56 36 43 47 50 54 56 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 31 35 39 43 46 46 26 33 37 40 44 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT