* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 08/18/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 43 49 52 54 55 59 63 69 72 76 80 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 43 49 52 54 55 59 47 48 38 42 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 34 36 37 36 36 36 31 33 30 35 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 12 9 8 5 13 15 21 16 19 13 9 5 16 13 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 0 1 2 3 0 4 2 6 1 -2 0 -1 -4 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 63 65 53 44 34 343 308 261 273 248 264 234 314 8 3 20 38 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.5 28.2 28.5 28.9 29.0 29.4 29.9 30.8 30.6 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 137 139 139 136 133 133 142 147 153 155 162 172 175 172 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 139 137 139 139 136 133 133 142 147 153 155 162 172 175 172 161 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -51.9 -51.1 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 78 77 78 72 69 66 65 64 64 60 58 56 56 53 57 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 54 54 46 44 35 20 9 -6 -9 4 9 -4 -14 -43 5 27 200 MB DIV 71 90 76 71 75 88 83 74 15 4 1 17 -10 -12 0 28 15 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -4 -6 -9 -3 -12 -7 -25 -19 -12 -15 -11 -5 -10 -4 -12 LAND (KM) 1620 1588 1483 1409 1345 1254 1166 1109 882 625 212 93 -11 -23 -56 88 241 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 12 13 16 19 19 18 19 19 19 20 22 19 13 9 HEAT CONTENT 15 13 14 21 22 16 27 22 36 48 57 59 46 47 68 141 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 25. 29. 32. 36. 39. 41. 44. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 18. 24. 27. 29. 30. 34. 38. 44. 47. 51. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 37.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 08/18/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 63.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.77 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.49 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 18.0% 12.6% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 9.5% 5.1% 0.9% 0.2% 1.5% 2.9% 3.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 2.8% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 4.1% 2.4% Consensus: 2.8% 10.1% 6.4% 3.1% 0.1% 0.8% 6.6% 1.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 08/18/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 08/18/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 37 43 49 52 54 55 59 47 48 38 42 45 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 35 41 47 50 52 53 57 45 46 36 40 43 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 37 43 46 48 49 53 41 42 32 36 39 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 29 35 38 40 41 45 33 34 24 28 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT