* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 08/18/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 50 55 60 63 66 69 73 79 85 89 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 50 55 60 63 66 69 73 79 85 89 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 35 37 39 41 44 47 50 57 66 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 5 1 1 3 10 7 7 2 11 8 14 6 6 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 9 7 9 6 2 -4 1 1 8 0 0 -2 0 -2 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 58 62 82 129 333 212 253 254 271 281 246 258 256 328 357 40 38 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.8 28.3 28.4 28.8 29.3 29.6 29.2 29.4 29.8 30.4 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 141 139 138 135 136 142 144 150 159 165 158 162 169 174 174 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 146 141 139 138 135 136 142 143 148 159 165 158 162 169 174 174 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 78 76 76 76 72 68 70 66 66 65 67 66 65 62 62 56 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 52 57 59 54 53 64 54 39 34 34 29 35 31 23 8 14 200 MB DIV 58 64 85 78 77 82 107 93 53 27 3 31 30 39 0 -31 -7 700-850 TADV -6 -1 0 3 0 -4 -1 -7 -1 -8 -6 -7 -10 -4 -6 -9 -8 LAND (KM) 1700 1696 1592 1463 1340 1146 1011 966 746 572 511 271 168 50 67 176 201 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.4 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.4 16.1 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.1 37.8 39.5 41.2 43.0 46.5 49.8 52.7 55.4 58.1 60.9 64.3 68.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 17 18 17 15 14 13 13 16 17 19 19 18 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 23 18 15 22 21 30 16 42 34 39 47 68 90 48 65 89 146 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 36. 40. 42. 44. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 17. 25. 30. 35. 38. 41. 44. 48. 54. 60. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 36.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 08/18/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.94 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.81 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.47 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 20.4% 14.3% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 14.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 11.3% 7.5% 2.0% 0.4% 2.2% 2.8% 4.5% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.1% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 7.1% 7.6% Consensus: 3.2% 10.6% 7.8% 3.9% 0.2% 1.1% 8.2% 4.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 08/18/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 08/18/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 50 55 60 63 66 69 73 79 85 89 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 34 40 48 53 58 61 64 67 71 77 83 87 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 36 44 49 54 57 60 63 67 73 79 83 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 28 36 41 46 49 52 55 59 65 71 75 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT