* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 08/18/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 35 40 45 52 58 62 66 68 71 74 79 85 87 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 35 40 45 52 58 62 66 68 71 74 75 81 82 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 35 38 41 43 46 50 55 60 63 64 69 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 8 7 5 1 6 12 7 6 5 13 11 15 9 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 11 6 5 5 5 1 -2 -1 0 6 2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 15 61 84 115 162 236 259 267 237 309 197 267 253 310 12 35 42 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.7 28.0 28.4 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.6 29.4 29.2 30.1 30.5 30.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 144 139 138 135 139 144 147 149 154 164 161 158 174 174 174 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 147 144 139 138 135 139 144 146 147 154 164 161 158 174 174 174 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 78 76 75 73 74 65 64 65 67 70 69 69 71 69 66 64 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 48 52 62 63 57 74 71 54 44 26 36 40 33 9 -16 9 200 MB DIV 60 56 49 61 56 44 56 62 62 27 34 22 15 0 14 -5 -9 700-850 TADV -11 -7 -2 4 7 0 -1 -3 -2 -2 -5 -9 -10 -14 -12 -9 -16 LAND (KM) 1725 1713 1648 1512 1384 1155 980 880 717 536 445 461 200 111 4 11 127 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.2 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.7 14.1 14.6 15.2 16.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.0 36.9 38.8 40.6 42.4 46.1 49.6 52.6 55.1 57.4 59.7 62.7 66.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 18 18 18 18 16 13 11 11 13 16 18 20 18 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 16 19 22 27 18 36 45 42 48 53 89 79 59 55 85 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. 0. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 36. 40. 42. 44. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. 11. 10. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 15. 20. 27. 33. 37. 41. 43. 46. 49. 54. 60. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 35.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 08/18/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.86 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.81 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 25.4% 15.5% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.9% 0.0% Logistic: 7.9% 19.0% 12.4% 4.3% 1.3% 5.0% 8.2% 12.0% Bayesian: 2.3% 8.8% 10.4% 0.8% 0.7% 5.9% 12.6% 25.6% Consensus: 5.6% 17.7% 12.8% 5.4% 0.7% 3.6% 12.9% 12.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 08/18/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 33 35 40 45 52 58 62 66 68 71 74 75 81 82 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 36 41 48 54 58 62 64 67 70 71 77 78 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 31 36 43 49 53 57 59 62 65 66 72 73 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 27 34 40 44 48 50 53 56 57 63 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT