* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 08/17/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 44 51 60 67 72 77 76 78 79 81 83 85 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 44 51 60 67 72 77 76 78 79 67 71 73 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 36 41 48 55 62 67 68 67 66 61 59 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 13 11 13 14 14 10 10 8 13 12 19 14 15 2 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 6 7 4 2 0 0 0 0 2 4 5 -2 -2 2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 26 30 36 53 49 27 7 321 300 270 272 246 239 239 289 266 352 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.8 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.5 29.2 29.8 29.9 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 147 146 144 142 141 137 136 145 148 155 164 159 169 171 174 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 149 147 146 144 142 141 137 135 145 148 155 164 159 169 171 174 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 77 79 78 77 75 72 68 71 67 64 62 62 61 60 56 54 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 10 10 12 12 14 16 15 16 15 13 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 47 46 50 56 61 58 46 47 32 22 10 10 10 21 21 15 10 200 MB DIV 53 69 67 53 50 59 59 91 118 96 67 22 6 27 27 -16 -24 700-850 TADV -8 -11 -8 -6 -4 -4 -8 -6 -12 -5 -10 -14 -10 -9 -5 2 -8 LAND (KM) 1689 1607 1552 1527 1502 1294 1140 1035 1009 932 733 620 212 85 -2 76 181 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.4 12.1 13.0 14.1 14.9 15.9 16.4 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.0 34.8 36.4 38.0 39.4 42.1 44.9 47.7 50.5 53.5 56.7 60.2 64.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 15 14 14 14 15 14 16 16 18 19 20 19 19 17 HEAT CONTENT 13 17 18 16 16 26 27 29 15 62 36 42 69 71 51 57 92 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 36. 40. 42. 44. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 2. 2. 4. 6. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 19. 26. 35. 42. 47. 52. 51. 53. 54. 56. 58. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.6 33.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 08/17/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 38.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.84 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.41 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 23.8% 15.2% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% Logistic: 15.5% 41.2% 25.0% 14.7% 11.7% 20.4% 25.1% 39.0% Bayesian: 2.8% 35.1% 9.3% 1.9% 0.5% 4.5% 4.1% 21.4% Consensus: 8.4% 33.4% 16.5% 9.1% 4.1% 8.3% 14.1% 20.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 08/17/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 33 36 44 51 60 67 72 77 76 78 79 67 71 73 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 40 47 56 63 68 73 72 74 75 63 67 69 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 35 42 51 58 63 68 67 69 70 58 62 64 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 26 33 42 49 54 59 58 60 61 49 53 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT