* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 07/09/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 31 33 36 39 41 41 41 41 38 36 35 35 38 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 25 29 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 24 27 29 29 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 8 11 13 8 7 12 25 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 2 -1 0 0 4 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 308 265 275 293 283 260 215 223 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.7 27.9 26.7 24.5 22.0 13.3 14.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 146 135 121 102 89 70 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 111 113 119 111 100 88 80 68 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 5 5 7 4 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 67 65 68 71 72 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 13 13 13 13 14 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 28 36 20 27 75 70 76 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 6 27 16 1 40 27 58 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 4 2 -2 6 13 16 33 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 70 15 17 -11 24 18 -77 -134 -64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 9 12 17 21 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 13 15 6 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 17. 17. 17. 17. 17. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 3. -0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 16. 16. 16. 13. 11. 10. 10. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 34.1 76.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 07/09/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.52 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 17.6% 13.3% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.5% 4.8% 3.6% 0.0% 0.3% 3.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 07/09/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 07/09/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 25 29 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 25 24 25 23 27 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 12HR AGO 25 22 21 19 23 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT