* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 07/09/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 34 37 39 41 41 37 28 25 22 19 18 19 21 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 34 37 39 35 31 30 30 27 24 21 20 21 23 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 34 36 33 30 30 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 17 14 12 14 8 9 10 22 33 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -1 -3 0 0 1 6 4 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 295 308 275 269 277 272 214 239 223 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.4 27.4 24.9 23.8 20.8 14.5 14.6 14.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 144 145 141 127 103 97 83 70 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 118 118 114 104 87 84 75 67 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.1 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 5 6 7 8 5 6 3 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 67 67 65 65 67 72 73 74 72 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 14 13 13 12 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 6 15 10 16 6 55 68 70 110 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 1 8 17 17 -8 48 25 74 42 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 4 0 4 -2 9 18 27 41 50 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 81 59 89 61 67 107 85 -44 -50 -187 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 7 7 11 15 17 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 19 23 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 15. 15. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 5. 1. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 9. 12. 15. 16. 16. 12. 3. -0. -3. -6. -7. -6. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 34.0 76.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 07/09/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.55 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 16.5% 12.3% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 3.1% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.5% 4.7% 3.3% 0.0% 0.3% 3.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 07/09/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 07/09/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 34 37 39 35 31 30 30 27 24 21 20 21 23 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 31 34 36 32 28 27 27 24 21 18 17 18 20 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 25 28 30 26 22 21 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT