* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 07/08/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 36 38 42 42 41 40 41 39 36 34 33 33 35 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 36 38 42 42 38 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 35 37 38 36 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 12 18 14 11 13 10 13 17 19 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -5 -1 -3 -2 1 0 2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 276 269 291 305 252 287 263 303 248 235 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.7 28.4 28.7 28.1 26.0 24.0 23.6 18.3 11.2 15.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 142 145 136 112 97 97 77 67 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 112 117 118 111 93 83 84 71 65 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 5 6 8 5 7 3 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 70 67 67 65 66 70 72 72 78 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 12 14 14 14 12 10 10 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 16 5 9 10 1 35 65 64 69 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 34 4 4 16 11 47 29 73 47 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 4 0 3 0 17 16 61 22 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 30 34 32 38 34 74 75 81 12 -104 -82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 8 6 6 7 8 14 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 7 15 15 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. 16. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 3. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -5. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 13. 17. 17. 16. 15. 16. 14. 11. 9. 8. 8. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 33.6 78.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 07/08/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 63.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.55 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 16.8% 12.5% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.7% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 6.5% 4.7% 3.3% 0.0% 0.3% 3.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 07/08/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 07/08/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 32 36 38 42 42 38 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 33 35 39 39 35 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 27 29 33 33 29 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 21 25 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT