* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 07/08/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 32 38 44 44 44 51 51 50 48 47 47 49 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 28 30 34 41 46 46 40 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 20 23 24 24 25 28 31 33 35 35 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 10 13 16 12 12 9 10 8 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 -2 -3 0 0 0 0 3 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 294 273 271 288 297 267 276 270 240 227 207 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.7 28.5 25.9 24.1 23.2 16.2 15.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 136 137 138 145 142 112 99 95 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 113 113 114 118 115 93 85 83 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 5 6 8 5 7 4 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 70 71 69 69 68 69 71 71 71 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 12 11 11 13 14 14 11 11 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 5 10 4 9 22 24 57 64 74 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 17 36 0 -3 31 7 43 33 64 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 1 1 4 1 2 11 15 19 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -11 36 46 70 61 32 70 100 11 7 -130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 6 7 12 16 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 8 11 13 22 9 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 21. 22. 23. 24. 24. 24. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. -1. -2. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 18. 24. 24. 24. 31. 31. 30. 28. 27. 27. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 33.3 79.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 07/08/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 4.4% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.7% 0.9% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 07/08/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 07/08/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 26 28 30 34 41 46 46 40 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 20 19 22 24 26 30 37 42 42 36 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 24 31 36 36 30 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT