* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 07/08/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 27 33 39 45 47 47 42 42 41 40 39 40 42 V (KT) LAND 20 22 27 29 31 37 43 49 51 50 45 45 44 43 43 43 46 V (KT) LGEM 20 23 26 27 28 31 34 36 38 39 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 11 10 12 18 9 12 8 12 12 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 2 -1 -5 -1 -2 0 -1 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 303 294 275 273 297 259 291 258 270 247 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.7 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.3 25.7 23.8 22.4 18.9 11.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 146 139 139 142 140 110 96 90 78 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 121 115 116 118 115 91 83 79 72 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 8 8 6 8 5 7 3 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 71 71 71 69 65 64 68 70 74 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 13 14 15 13 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -11 14 12 8 18 11 27 42 50 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 0 28 47 4 20 13 59 40 90 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 7 1 2 3 5 5 16 18 39 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -67 -35 19 31 82 89 119 145 122 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 7 7 9 13 17 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 13 8 9 16 21 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 21. 22. 23. 24. 24. 24. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 13. 19. 25. 27. 27. 22. 22. 21. 20. 19. 20. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 33.3 80.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 07/08/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 6.3% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 2.9% 1.7% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 07/08/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 07/08/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 27 29 31 37 43 49 51 50 45 45 44 43 43 43 46 18HR AGO 20 19 24 26 28 34 40 46 48 47 42 42 41 40 40 40 43 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 26 32 38 40 39 34 34 33 32 32 32 35 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT