* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 07/08/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 30 37 44 50 51 47 47 47 47 47 48 49 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 25 26 30 31 32 41 42 38 38 38 38 38 39 40 V (KT) LGEM 20 23 25 25 26 30 29 30 36 37 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 14 12 7 9 9 15 12 12 11 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 2 3 0 0 0 -1 0 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 287 294 292 269 274 275 274 286 267 231 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.7 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.6 28.1 27.8 24.1 22.6 19.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 146 150 143 136 130 136 132 99 91 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 120 123 117 112 107 110 108 85 80 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 5 5 8 9 5 8 5 8 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 71 71 72 70 68 67 68 66 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 9 11 11 13 14 15 14 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -32 -15 12 14 23 40 49 62 61 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 5 3 32 58 -2 52 24 38 11 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 6 3 3 2 2 7 7 18 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -136 -101 -73 -49 -10 21 -2 -15 100 140 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 5 6 6 5 6 11 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 4 9 13 8 6 11 6 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. 27. 27. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 24. 30. 31. 27. 27. 27. 27. 27. 28. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 33.3 82.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 07/08/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 7.3% 3.1% 1.1% 0.4% 3.7% 3.1% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 07/08/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 07/08/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 25 25 26 30 31 32 41 42 38 38 38 38 38 39 40 18HR AGO 20 19 21 21 22 26 27 28 37 38 34 34 34 34 34 35 36 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 21 22 23 32 33 29 29 29 29 29 30 31 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT