* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 07/07/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 24 27 31 37 42 47 46 44 40 35 28 23 23 24 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 25 26 26 27 27 31 30 28 23 20 23 17 18 19 V (KT) LGEM 20 23 25 26 26 26 27 27 30 32 33 34 34 34 37 42 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 17 13 8 15 10 15 13 16 15 25 20 23 27 26 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 0 1 -4 0 -2 2 0 4 0 2 1 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 287 287 293 308 286 289 264 297 292 293 268 287 277 272 250 240 240 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 29.0 28.6 27.8 27.0 26.3 27.1 25.4 22.6 16.9 13.7 12.8 8.9 10.8 9.7 10.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 150 143 132 121 114 124 109 92 76 72 71 68 68 68 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 116 122 117 107 99 94 102 93 83 72 69 68 66 66 67 68 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.8 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 5 5 8 5 8 5 8 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 72 70 71 72 71 70 70 72 74 75 77 69 57 43 39 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 8 7 9 10 12 13 14 12 11 10 8 7 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -3 -25 -9 13 18 40 44 61 41 28 22 18 -4 -15 14 6 200 MB DIV 22 26 3 1 32 -4 42 17 74 19 77 22 52 -1 2 1 18 700-850 TADV 5 1 0 7 3 2 4 2 10 14 42 55 38 30 3 -4 -4 LAND (KM) -167 -142 -139 -123 -89 -51 -71 -36 29 140 113 15 80 129 594 1083 1362 LAT (DEG N) 33.3 33.6 33.8 34.0 34.1 34.3 34.9 35.8 37.2 39.1 41.8 44.5 46.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.4 81.7 81.0 80.3 79.7 78.8 78.1 77.3 75.6 72.8 68.6 63.2 57.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 7 12 18 23 24 23 22 21 23 27 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 4 4 2 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 23. 23. 22. 20. 19. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. -3. -7. -11. -16. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 17. 22. 27. 27. 24. 20. 15. 8. 3. 3. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 33.3 82.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 07/07/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 34.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 4.6% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 1.9% 2.6% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.9% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 07/07/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 07/07/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 25 25 26 26 27 27 31 30 28 23 20 23 17 18 19 18HR AGO 20 19 21 21 22 22 23 23 27 26 24 19 16 19 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 17 18 18 22 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT