* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 07/07/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 27 31 36 43 47 51 50 48 46 44 37 32 31 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 27 25 23 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 23 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 32 33 35 37 38 39 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 10 14 17 9 15 12 16 13 16 14 22 26 31 28 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 1 -1 -4 1 -3 1 -1 3 -1 3 1 1 4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 298 295 281 273 291 272 289 269 287 282 284 262 276 290 289 253 217 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.5 29.0 27.9 27.3 26.5 26.2 27.1 23.3 16.8 14.0 11.9 9.0 10.4 10.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 138 142 149 132 124 116 114 126 96 76 73 70 67 68 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 113 113 115 120 106 100 94 94 106 86 72 70 68 66 66 66 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 8 9 5 8 5 8 6 9 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 69 69 71 68 70 68 67 67 70 74 75 76 65 54 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 9 7 9 9 11 12 14 13 12 13 14 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -31 -8 -9 -19 21 21 43 54 78 54 36 29 37 15 -24 -6 200 MB DIV 14 -16 25 36 1 32 -2 43 31 75 32 41 17 54 14 16 27 700-850 TADV 0 3 5 1 0 1 2 1 1 17 15 52 46 35 66 37 22 LAND (KM) -260 -243 -222 -204 -216 -173 -131 -137 -101 -42 147 132 133 122 173 603 1020 LAT (DEG N) 32.9 33.5 33.9 34.1 34.4 34.6 34.6 35.0 35.5 36.6 38.2 40.8 43.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.7 83.2 82.6 82.0 81.5 80.4 79.8 79.2 78.2 76.4 73.4 68.9 62.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 4 6 12 18 24 27 24 21 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 2 3 3 3 4 2 2 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 8 CX,CY: 4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 25. 25. 24. 23. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. -9. -15. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. -1. 1. -0. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. -0. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 7. 11. 16. 23. 27. 31. 30. 28. 26. 24. 17. 12. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 32.9 83.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 07/07/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 5.6% 2.4% 0.8% 0.3% 2.8% 2.8% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 07/07/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 07/07/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 27 25 23 18 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 21 21 22 22 23 23 23 23 24 23 21 19 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 17 18 18 18 18 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT