* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 07/07/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 29 36 41 47 50 55 53 53 55 48 41 34 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 34 27 20 N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 23 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 36 40 42 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 15 10 14 8 12 11 15 12 15 15 14 20 38 31 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 0 -1 0 -1 -1 2 -1 0 4 0 2 1 4 -1 SHEAR DIR 280 285 294 281 275 314 276 308 277 279 256 237 203 215 237 252 256 SST (C) 28.6 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.4 27.3 26.5 26.1 27.4 26.4 20.3 10.8 12.2 7.1 8.6 11.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 137 137 138 143 140 124 116 112 129 120 85 71 72 70 72 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 114 113 113 117 113 100 94 92 106 102 78 69 70 69 71 72 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.0 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -52.3 -51.5 -50.6 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 6 5 8 9 5 9 5 9 6 8 4 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 65 66 67 69 68 70 70 68 70 69 68 67 68 63 62 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 7 7 8 10 8 10 9 12 13 15 15 15 19 17 16 11 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -24 -27 -7 -6 0 24 23 46 64 55 58 86 85 34 37 63 200 MB DIV 40 4 -19 27 35 -6 44 -5 61 31 76 40 77 20 25 7 20 700-850 TADV 1 0 4 5 3 8 3 2 2 12 17 36 16 11 -58 -19 -4 LAND (KM) -234 -247 -221 -201 -185 -181 -139 -147 -149 -152 -45 -56 -47 67 289 1059 1062 LAT (DEG N) 32.2 32.8 33.4 33.8 34.0 34.5 34.7 35.1 35.8 36.9 38.7 41.6 45.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.1 83.6 83.0 82.4 81.8 80.6 79.8 79.2 78.7 77.7 75.6 72.3 67.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 5 3 4 5 9 15 24 29 32 33 38 40 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 3 3 3 3 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 9 CX,CY: 4/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 732 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 27. 26. 26. 25. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -3. -6. -13. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 0. -2. -0. -2. 0. 1. 3. 2. 2. 5. 3. 0. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 16. 21. 27. 30. 35. 33. 33. 35. 28. 21. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 32.2 84.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 07/07/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 8.1% 3.6% 1.5% 0.6% 4.4% 5.6% 4.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 2.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 1.5% 1.9% 1.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 07/07/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 07/07/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 34 27 20 DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 21 21 22 22 23 23 23 23 24 25 25 30 23 16 DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 17 18 18 18 18 19 20 20 25 18 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT