* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 07/06/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 19 21 27 30 38 42 47 49 49 45 39 34 36 35 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 30 26 20 26 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 23 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 28 32 32 33 30 35 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 14 18 13 15 10 12 12 16 11 16 10 19 22 19 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -4 -2 -2 1 -2 0 0 -2 0 3 0 2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 335 277 274 286 294 275 302 279 293 278 289 284 284 281 307 302 343 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.4 28.0 28.0 28.7 27.1 26.0 26.6 27.3 27.6 23.8 19.6 12.1 13.4 9.4 11.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 148 142 136 136 145 124 111 117 125 131 97 81 70 72 69 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 125 118 113 112 119 102 91 95 101 107 84 74 68 70 68 69 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 6 5 9 5 9 6 9 5 8 3 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 66 66 62 65 67 67 68 68 68 70 70 73 78 80 78 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 7 7 9 7 10 10 12 13 13 11 8 8 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -8 -2 -22 -18 -6 0 20 29 39 39 38 17 18 31 47 10 200 MB DIV -18 25 32 -7 -20 29 -9 47 9 55 0 77 11 58 17 0 1 700-850 TADV 10 4 1 2 5 2 6 5 2 2 9 13 20 22 72 18 78 LAND (KM) -109 -193 -267 -273 -251 -260 -254 -204 -160 -152 -63 37 57 27 9 31 622 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.8 32.5 33.2 33.8 34.7 35.5 35.9 36.4 36.9 37.8 39.1 41.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.1 84.6 84.2 83.7 83.1 81.9 80.6 79.3 78.5 77.7 76.4 74.2 71.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 4 4 5 9 13 19 24 27 27 28 HEAT CONTENT 14 4 3 2 2 4 1 0 0 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 11 CX,CY: 7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 27. 27. 26. 25. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -5. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. -0. -3. -1. -1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -8. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 10. 18. 22. 27. 29. 29. 25. 19. 14. 16. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 30.9 85.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 07/06/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 4.7% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 07/06/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 07/06/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 30 26 20 26 29 27 18HR AGO 20 19 21 21 22 22 23 23 23 23 24 26 22 16 22 25 23 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 17 18 18 18 18 19 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT