* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 07/06/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 39 44 46 51 54 57 58 59 54 50 48 42 39 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 32 28 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 34 31 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 7 11 14 10 17 7 16 10 15 13 13 19 32 40 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 -3 -5 0 -4 0 -6 -3 -6 0 -2 6 1 5 10 SHEAR DIR 327 318 270 268 293 274 310 295 297 259 283 270 277 250 278 280 293 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.6 28.7 28.0 28.5 27.3 26.0 27.0 27.4 27.7 25.3 19.9 11.7 14.9 9.8 10.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 162 146 136 143 127 112 122 127 132 108 81 69 74 70 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 131 137 123 114 118 105 93 99 103 108 92 74 67 71 69 70 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.3 -52.8 -52.4 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.7 -53.4 -53.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 -0.1 -0.7 -0.9 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 6 9 6 8 5 8 5 8 3 4 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 66 66 65 62 64 65 68 66 65 65 67 71 79 83 77 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 6 8 7 9 9 11 12 14 13 12 13 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -22 -7 -1 -19 14 1 24 23 17 9 23 38 68 47 21 18 200 MB DIV -20 -13 33 30 -7 14 -4 27 -3 16 32 56 58 69 14 36 20 700-850 TADV 3 6 4 1 2 2 3 9 3 6 9 16 13 44 60 8 2 LAND (KM) -8 -67 -146 -203 -173 -150 -144 -122 -56 -72 -86 -82 -137 -60 92 -15 650 LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.6 31.4 32.0 32.7 33.8 34.6 35.3 35.9 36.9 38.2 40.1 42.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.4 84.6 84.0 83.4 82.8 81.4 80.0 78.4 77.5 76.8 76.4 75.1 72.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 7 8 6 5 6 9 13 17 22 27 30 35 HEAT CONTENT 18 5 4 3 2 3 2 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 12 CX,CY: 8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 19. 17. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. -7. -11. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -1. -0. -2. -0. -1. 1. 1. 3. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 9. 14. 16. 21. 24. 27. 28. 29. 24. 20. 18. 12. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 29.9 85.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 07/06/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.62 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.71 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 18.2% 13.3% 10.1% 8.6% 11.1% 11.2% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 17.8% 12.5% 4.0% 1.0% 3.9% 2.2% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 12.1% 8.6% 4.7% 3.2% 5.0% 4.4% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 07/06/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 07/06/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 32 28 30 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 32 28 30 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 28 30 26 28 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 23 23 25 21 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT