* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 07/06/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 41 42 48 49 54 53 56 53 52 49 45 43 41 V (KT) LAND 30 33 29 28 28 27 27 27 27 30 33 30 28 29 32 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 34 37 32 30 30 39 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 10 5 13 12 16 14 13 13 20 10 12 15 24 35 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 0 -2 -3 -2 0 -2 -4 -2 -3 -1 -1 -2 3 3 SHEAR DIR 40 326 345 315 298 312 299 324 282 316 281 283 264 241 254 252 263 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.7 28.7 28.1 28.1 26.3 28.1 26.2 24.8 24.0 20.3 12.5 16.9 12.2 6.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 155 164 147 138 137 116 136 114 103 98 82 69 75 70 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 131 133 140 124 116 114 97 110 94 86 85 74 67 71 68 68 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 -53.9 -53.8 -53.3 -53.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 7 9 9 6 9 6 9 6 9 5 7 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 65 66 67 66 66 67 66 65 65 64 66 67 72 76 78 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 6 9 8 11 11 14 13 14 13 12 13 16 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -26 -28 -14 -14 -20 4 -2 16 12 7 2 13 23 82 86 55 200 MB DIV 40 -18 -2 28 22 -2 33 -17 28 -16 48 42 63 54 73 37 9 700-850 TADV 1 4 6 5 3 5 4 12 5 9 7 12 24 17 17 -3 0 LAND (KM) 111 23 -30 -105 -172 -86 -89 -70 -6 7 33 3 -76 -28 17 45 271 LAT (DEG N) 29.0 29.5 30.2 31.0 31.7 33.0 33.9 34.8 35.5 36.4 37.7 39.5 41.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.1 85.3 84.6 83.9 83.2 81.6 79.9 78.2 76.7 75.8 75.2 74.3 72.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 10 10 9 9 8 8 6 7 8 12 15 20 22 24 27 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 22 5 3 3 2 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 13 CX,CY: 11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 21. 21. 21. 19. 17. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. -0. -2. -5. -9. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -2. 0. -2. 1. -0. 3. 2. 2. -0. -2. -2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 18. 19. 24. 23. 26. 23. 22. 19. 15. 13. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 29.0 86.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 07/06/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.67 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 21.6% 15.5% 12.0% 10.2% 12.2% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 20.9% 14.7% 4.8% 1.0% 5.1% 2.2% 2.5% Bayesian: 1.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 14.5% 10.2% 5.7% 3.7% 5.8% 4.9% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 07/06/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 07/06/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 29 28 28 27 27 27 27 30 33 30 28 29 32 30 30 18HR AGO 30 29 25 24 24 23 23 23 23 26 29 26 24 25 28 26 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 24 24 24 24 27 30 27 25 26 29 27 27 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 19 19 19 19 22 25 22 20 21 24 22 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT