* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 07/05/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 34 36 41 45 50 52 57 57 57 55 52 49 50 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 29 27 22 29 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 31 34 37 39 35 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 6 10 11 7 14 10 16 7 16 7 17 12 14 11 19 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -3 -1 -4 0 -1 3 -2 3 -3 1 -2 3 0 4 SHEAR DIR 31 17 338 359 351 323 298 321 305 309 288 312 297 305 280 304 294 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.6 28.0 28.7 26.8 26.3 28.0 24.9 22.9 18.7 12.0 13.3 9.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 154 152 146 145 136 146 121 115 135 104 93 79 70 72 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 126 130 129 124 123 114 122 101 95 110 89 82 73 68 70 69 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.4 -1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 7 9 6 8 5 8 5 8 5 8 3 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 65 63 67 67 67 70 68 71 70 69 68 71 73 76 82 83 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 6 7 6 6 7 9 9 12 12 13 13 11 10 13 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -6 -28 -32 -19 -38 -7 -14 12 23 28 8 13 9 7 45 67 200 MB DIV 29 41 -8 -8 19 5 28 -1 24 -13 20 22 45 22 52 37 31 700-850 TADV 2 1 7 7 1 2 4 1 9 2 6 2 23 12 42 42 65 LAND (KM) 106 130 93 29 -44 -229 -234 -182 -117 -69 -38 50 112 57 -28 79 105 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.1 29.5 30.1 30.7 32.1 33.3 34.1 34.7 35.0 35.8 37.0 38.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 88.1 87.6 87.2 86.6 86.1 84.8 83.2 81.4 79.4 77.9 76.7 75.4 73.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 6 7 10 14 20 24 27 29 HEAT CONTENT 30 25 20 17 15 3 2 4 1 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 22. 25. 26. 26. 25. 24. 22. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. -0. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -0. 0. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 16. 20. 25. 27. 32. 32. 32. 30. 27. 24. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.8 88.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 07/05/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.67 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 17.8% 13.1% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 13.7% 8.6% 2.6% 0.6% 4.8% 6.2% 5.8% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 10.7% 7.3% 4.2% 0.2% 1.7% 5.7% 1.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 07/05/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 07/05/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 29 27 22 29 31 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 25 23 23 23 23 23 23 25 25 23 18 25 27 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 20 18 18 18 18 18 18 20 20 18 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT