* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982019 10/25/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 53 54 53 52 53 52 50 47 44 40 37 V (KT) LAND 45 50 53 54 53 52 53 52 50 47 44 40 37 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 55 56 56 55 54 53 52 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 31 33 41 40 36 31 29 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -2 -3 -3 2 2 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 243 233 234 228 230 245 244 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.0 22.0 22.2 21.6 21.0 20.2 18.4 16.3 15.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 84 84 88 87 84 81 78 72 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 73 73 78 79 76 73 72 67 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -54.2 -55.2 -56.2 -56.7 -58.8 -60.4 -61.2 -60.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.0 1.5 0.8 -0.8 0.1 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 45 41 42 44 49 48 50 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 19 18 18 19 18 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 216 180 168 144 125 117 101 60 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 20 49 42 28 62 22 12 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -18 -19 -22 -27 -6 31 55 26 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2062 2017 1971 1830 1665 1455 1194 922 867 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 10 17 15 14 20 14 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -12. -18. -24. -29. -34. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 14. 18. 24. 28. 30. 31. 32. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 9. 8. 7. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. -5. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 36.0 32.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982019 INVEST 10/25/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 2.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 5.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982019 INVEST 10/25/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 50 53 54 53 52 53 52 50 47 44 40 37 18HR AGO 45 44 47 48 47 46 47 46 44 41 38 34 31 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 41 40 41 40 38 35 32 28 25 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 33 34 33 31 28 25 21 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT