* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982019 09/17/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 37 41 43 39 37 35 34 33 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 29 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 29 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 7 13 15 21 31 42 48 36 23 25 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -4 -6 -3 -5 -2 -10 0 -2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 332 339 269 274 282 269 291 284 292 282 273 258 281 SST (C) 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.6 30.6 30.9 31.0 30.7 15.3 15.0 9.2 POT. INT. (KT) 160 164 167 169 169 168 169 171 173 176 75 76 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 138 139 141 141 144 148 158 169 169 72 73 71 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -54.4 -55.4 -55.8 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 11 8 7 11 6 9 4 8 0 2 0 700-500 MB RH 47 49 49 47 49 49 50 57 60 58 57 56 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -42 -55 -71 -54 -44 -52 -51 -62 -47 43 50 157 200 MB DIV -8 -1 6 0 -8 3 0 39 7 72 47 30 36 700-850 TADV 6 6 6 6 5 2 1 8 8 88 41 37 46 LAND (KM) 42 -19 -68 -111 -156 -218 -291 -419 -624 -952 -999 -999 -743 LAT (DEG N) 28.2 28.7 29.2 29.6 30.0 30.7 31.3 32.6 34.9 38.3 42.6 47.9 53.2 LONG(DEG W) 96.0 96.3 96.4 96.5 96.6 96.6 97.0 97.3 96.8 94.6 90.8 85.2 76.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 3 5 8 15 22 30 35 39 HEAT CONTENT 37 45 31 11 6 5 6 6 6 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 16. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 2. -6. -13. -19. -23. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 12. 16. 18. 14. 12. 10. 9. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.2 96.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982019 INVEST 09/17/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.77 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 15.7% 11.2% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 12.9% 9.0% 2.9% 0.5% 5.1% 4.7% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 9.5% 6.7% 3.5% 0.2% 1.7% 4.6% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982019 INVEST 09/17/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982019 INVEST 09/17/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 29 30 30 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 29 30 30 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 25 26 26 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 18 19 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT