* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982019 09/17/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 24 31 37 43 40 36 33 33 34 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 25 26 26 27 27 27 28 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 23 25 26 27 27 27 27 29 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 4 5 10 12 23 30 39 38 32 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 -2 -4 -6 -1 -3 -2 -6 1 3 4 SHEAR DIR 301 346 347 267 271 289 276 283 283 280 291 273 263 SST (C) 29.7 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.6 30.8 31.2 30.8 30.9 16.0 15.9 POT. INT. (KT) 163 170 169 168 168 168 169 170 172 175 177 78 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 144 144 141 142 143 147 154 169 170 177 75 75 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.8 -55.0 -55.5 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 11 8 10 8 10 7 9 2 4 0 700-500 MB RH 49 49 52 52 50 53 51 57 59 61 61 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 9 7 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -46 -37 -44 -61 -30 -48 -35 -52 -51 -4 28 141 200 MB DIV -14 -3 -4 9 7 7 11 17 49 56 89 37 44 700-850 TADV 7 4 6 6 4 4 0 -1 11 32 52 65 -46 LAND (KM) 76 3 -58 -98 -123 -198 -260 -377 -518 -779 -999 -999 -813 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.2 28.7 29.1 29.4 30.2 30.8 31.8 33.6 36.6 40.4 45.3 50.8 LONG(DEG W) 96.0 96.6 96.9 97.0 97.0 97.1 97.2 97.7 97.4 95.8 92.6 87.2 79.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 3 4 7 12 20 27 35 39 HEAT CONTENT 36 40 45 21 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 17. 23. 29. 32. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 6. 0. -7. -15. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -4. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 11. 17. 23. 20. 16. 13. 13. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 27.8 96.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982019 INVEST 09/17/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.85 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 25.3% 22.5% 10.0% 1.8% 6.7% 3.5% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 8.4% 7.5% 3.3% 0.6% 2.2% 1.2% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982019 INVEST 09/17/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982019 INVEST 09/17/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 23 25 26 26 27 27 27 28 29 30 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 24 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 29 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 21 21 22 22 22 23 24 25 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT