* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982019 09/17/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 32 40 43 42 37 33 33 35 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 24 26 26 27 27 27 28 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 22 25 26 27 27 27 28 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 9 5 7 15 20 32 38 42 32 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -5 -3 -5 -1 -6 3 0 2 SHEAR DIR 231 306 336 345 274 288 273 291 279 289 283 290 273 SST (C) 29.8 29.5 29.9 30.2 30.4 30.6 30.9 31.1 31.2 30.8 30.9 15.5 16.6 POT. INT. (KT) 164 158 166 169 169 169 169 170 171 174 176 75 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 135 140 144 147 149 152 159 165 167 172 72 74 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.9 -54.8 -56.0 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 10 11 7 11 6 10 3 8 0 1 700-500 MB RH 50 47 48 51 51 51 51 50 54 58 58 60 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 9 9 9 8 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -48 -57 -46 -56 -65 -53 -55 -66 -61 -41 47 48 200 MB DIV -22 -14 -17 -7 0 -5 10 2 35 19 72 54 24 700-850 TADV 6 9 4 4 6 6 3 0 9 15 75 28 32 LAND (KM) 171 118 59 4 -39 -147 -212 -317 -471 -723 -999 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 27.3 27.6 28.0 28.5 29.0 30.0 30.9 31.9 33.5 36.1 39.7 43.9 48.4 LONG(DEG W) 95.0 95.6 96.0 96.2 96.2 96.3 96.3 96.6 96.5 95.7 93.1 88.9 82.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 7 10 18 23 30 31 HEAT CONTENT 63 36 37 45 47 6 6 6 6 6 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 17. 23. 29. 32. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 6. 1. -6. -13. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -14. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 20. 23. 22. 17. 13. 13. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 27.3 95.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982019 INVEST 09/17/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 73.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 36.9% 32.4% 18.0% 5.3% 20.6% 15.9% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 12.3% 10.8% 6.0% 1.8% 6.9% 5.3% 1.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982019 INVEST 09/17/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982019 INVEST 09/17/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 25 24 26 26 27 27 27 28 29 30 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 22 24 24 25 25 25 26 27 28 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 17 19 19 20 20 20 21 22 23 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT