* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982019 08/26/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 36 39 40 46 48 45 38 31 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 36 39 40 46 48 45 38 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 34 34 34 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 15 17 19 14 17 7 5 10 20 30 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -1 0 -2 -7 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 2 2 4 SHEAR DIR 302 292 297 318 326 307 342 7 268 227 239 243 250 SST (C) 29.0 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.3 28.4 27.7 27.7 27.3 24.6 19.6 15.7 10.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 144 140 137 139 140 132 134 130 105 81 74 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 120 115 112 113 115 111 113 110 91 74 70 68 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.8 -54.0 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 53 52 51 51 56 57 62 63 50 40 36 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 9 9 6 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 10 1 -9 -12 -32 -22 -16 -23 -15 -33 -47 -62 200 MB DIV 6 18 -6 -10 10 4 6 15 33 39 31 33 32 700-850 TADV 6 3 0 2 3 0 6 5 9 14 33 47 52 LAND (KM) 503 548 583 591 589 585 595 585 489 324 229 17 377 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.8 31.9 32.2 32.6 33.5 34.9 36.8 39.1 41.6 44.1 47.0 50.2 LONG(DEG W) 72.8 71.8 71.2 70.8 70.5 70.0 69.4 67.9 65.7 62.5 58.7 54.3 48.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 5 5 5 6 9 13 16 18 20 23 26 HEAT CONTENT 25 22 20 21 22 21 18 40 13 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 11 CX,CY: 11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 5. 5. 4. 2. -3. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -4. -5. -9. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 15. 21. 23. 20. 13. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 31.5 72.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982019 INVEST 08/26/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.53 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.58 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.77 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 13.0% 9.5% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 4.1% 3.3% 0.9% 0.1% 1.5% 1.0% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.7% 4.3% 2.5% 0.0% 0.5% 3.3% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982019 INVEST 08/26/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982019 INVEST 08/26/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 30 32 36 39 40 46 48 45 38 32 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 33 36 37 43 45 42 35 29 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 29 32 33 39 41 38 31 25 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 24 25 31 33 30 23 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT