* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982019 08/26/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 37 41 44 48 50 51 48 43 30 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 37 41 44 48 50 51 48 43 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 34 36 37 39 41 42 35 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 17 11 14 17 14 11 5 15 31 43 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -5 -6 -1 0 -6 1 0 -1 0 0 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 261 287 294 286 288 318 285 310 283 248 230 229 240 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 27.8 28.1 26.3 19.9 19.6 13.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 152 150 146 144 135 140 119 82 82 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 128 127 123 119 119 114 119 101 74 75 68 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.7 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.5 0.0 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 5 4 5 3 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 53 56 56 54 56 58 59 62 61 58 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 9 11 10 10 9 10 8 8 8 9 5 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -16 -13 0 -14 -34 -38 -22 -24 -14 -20 -28 -28 200 MB DIV 31 -9 1 3 6 24 5 19 30 31 46 60 44 700-850 TADV 9 8 7 8 3 4 2 6 9 13 9 35 52 LAND (KM) 431 445 449 457 477 462 423 479 466 359 156 17 31 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 5 5 7 12 15 16 18 22 23 HEAT CONTENT 42 30 27 26 24 25 23 28 26 10 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 9 CX,CY: 7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. -1. -8. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -6. -7. -7. -8. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 7. 11. 14. 18. 20. 21. 18. 13. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.6 75.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982019 INVEST 08/26/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.53 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.62 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 15.4% 11.1% 8.2% 7.7% 9.1% 9.7% 14.2% Logistic: 1.6% 5.1% 4.3% 1.9% 0.2% 1.7% 0.8% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 6.8% 5.1% 3.4% 2.7% 3.6% 3.5% 4.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982019 INVEST 08/26/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982019 INVEST 08/26/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 36 37 41 44 48 50 51 48 43 33 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 35 39 42 46 48 49 46 41 31 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 30 34 37 41 43 44 41 36 26 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 28 32 34 35 32 27 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT