* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982019 08/25/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 40 42 47 50 53 53 49 42 31 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 40 42 47 50 53 53 49 38 31 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 37 39 40 42 43 44 42 35 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 13 15 18 13 17 11 15 6 22 28 47 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 -4 -6 -1 -3 -2 -1 1 -5 1 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 279 268 279 294 298 309 311 306 266 252 240 240 246 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.0 28.1 26.9 19.9 19.9 16.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 151 150 151 148 146 137 140 126 82 81 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 131 128 125 125 120 120 115 119 108 75 74 68 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 57 54 57 57 56 63 62 59 61 58 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 8 9 10 8 9 8 7 7 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 9 1 -17 -17 -13 -45 -32 -35 -17 -38 -30 -51 -61 200 MB DIV 31 22 -16 0 10 -4 16 26 39 11 44 33 35 700-850 TADV 10 12 7 9 11 4 5 7 7 7 11 11 62 LAND (KM) 409 428 437 432 438 426 431 448 460 336 146 -11 -59 LAT (DEG N) 30.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 7 5 5 7 11 15 18 19 18 16 HEAT CONTENT 47 41 30 28 26 25 25 24 30 10 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. -2. -9. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 17. 20. 23. 23. 19. 12. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.2 76.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982019 INVEST 08/25/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.63 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 16.1% 11.5% 8.2% 7.5% 9.2% 10.9% 16.7% Logistic: 3.5% 9.4% 6.9% 2.7% 0.5% 3.2% 2.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 8.6% 6.2% 3.7% 2.7% 4.2% 4.3% 5.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982019 INVEST 08/25/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982019 INVEST 08/25/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 37 40 42 47 50 53 53 49 38 31 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 38 43 46 49 49 45 34 27 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 33 38 41 44 44 40 29 22 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 25 30 33 36 36 32 21 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT