* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982019 08/25/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 43 45 48 45 38 30 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 43 45 48 45 38 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 28 28 28 29 30 31 31 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 20 23 22 21 22 17 14 15 27 44 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 2 2 -6 -8 0 -3 0 3 0 6 0 1 SHEAR DIR 287 264 257 277 291 285 318 285 316 236 232 226 234 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 27.9 28.2 26.9 21.3 18.5 18.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 150 148 146 143 141 134 140 124 86 78 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 133 127 124 121 116 114 110 116 103 76 72 71 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 -53.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 60 54 50 51 49 52 62 63 58 57 53 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -7 20 10 -8 0 -35 -55 -54 -25 -25 -14 -27 -31 200 MB DIV 16 35 19 -12 -13 -8 22 12 10 34 29 43 56 700-850 TADV 8 10 6 7 8 2 7 3 15 16 11 9 35 LAND (KM) 382 370 348 364 397 429 457 464 442 317 264 67 82 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 7 5 4 7 11 12 15 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 50 43 33 27 26 24 24 25 32 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 12 CX,CY: 9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 22. 24. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. 0. -2. -6. -13. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 23. 20. 13. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 30.6 76.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982019 INVEST 08/25/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.42 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.68 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 12.7% 9.0% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.8% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.2% 3.7% 2.2% 0.0% 0.1% 2.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982019 INVEST 08/25/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982019 INVEST 08/25/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 43 45 48 45 38 30 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 34 38 40 42 45 42 35 27 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 29 33 35 37 40 37 30 22 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 25 27 29 32 29 22 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT