* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982019 08/25/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 40 45 49 48 46 44 44 43 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 40 45 49 48 46 44 44 43 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 32 32 31 31 30 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 14 12 17 20 22 27 22 22 15 10 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -3 1 2 -7 1 -5 1 0 -3 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 268 274 288 275 267 301 294 315 295 316 321 307 256 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.0 28.2 27.2 28.3 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 164 166 157 155 155 151 152 148 136 140 127 142 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 143 135 133 132 127 127 123 113 115 106 117 77 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -54.0 -53.7 -54.4 -54.0 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 6 6 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 66 65 64 61 58 55 55 55 63 65 64 64 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 9 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -13 -4 8 5 -27 -30 -46 -46 -39 -24 -42 -54 200 MB DIV 37 2 9 33 21 12 15 9 21 -11 27 7 17 700-850 TADV 3 6 7 13 12 9 5 6 0 13 12 16 16 LAND (KM) 138 220 307 322 325 336 357 474 555 521 511 378 258 LAT (DEG N) 28.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 11 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 70 104 50 51 48 32 32 26 30 34 10 51 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 9 CX,CY: 5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 3. -1. -5. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 20. 24. 23. 21. 19. 19. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.7 79.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982019 INVEST 08/25/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 64.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.43 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.75 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 20.1% 14.1% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 12.1% 7.8% 2.3% 0.5% 2.2% 0.6% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 10.8% 7.3% 4.0% 0.2% 0.7% 3.9% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982019 INVEST 08/25/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982019 INVEST 08/25/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 34 40 45 49 48 46 44 44 43 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 38 43 47 46 44 42 42 41 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 33 38 42 41 39 37 37 36 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 29 33 32 30 28 28 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT