* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982019 08/24/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 48 52 54 51 47 46 46 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 48 52 54 51 47 46 46 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 35 36 36 34 33 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 11 15 12 22 14 24 25 24 22 18 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -2 -2 2 -5 0 -4 -2 0 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 240 265 265 284 276 287 288 307 309 299 317 318 255 SST (C) 29.5 29.8 29.7 29.3 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.9 28.2 28.0 27.1 28.4 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 160 165 163 156 155 155 150 150 140 137 126 143 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 140 139 133 132 132 126 125 117 115 105 116 84 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 6 5 6 4 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 65 67 65 63 60 54 55 54 57 62 61 60 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 4 1 -15 -7 16 -22 -7 -33 -34 -44 -30 -5 -12 200 MB DIV 41 41 -2 10 32 -7 6 -1 15 20 16 0 21 700-850 TADV 3 3 5 8 14 7 7 4 6 8 7 10 3 LAND (KM) 108 161 230 320 312 300 326 425 566 579 545 423 364 LAT (DEG N) 28.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 56 85 98 49 49 46 30 27 29 29 8 70 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 10 CX,CY: 6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 4. 0. -4. -9. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 23. 27. 29. 26. 22. 21. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.4 79.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982019 INVEST 08/24/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 67.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.44 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.75 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 18.0% 12.5% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 16.1% 9.2% 2.4% 0.7% 2.8% 1.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 11.5% 7.3% 3.6% 0.2% 0.9% 4.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982019 INVEST 08/24/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982019 INVEST 08/24/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 35 41 48 52 54 51 47 46 46 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 38 45 49 51 48 44 43 43 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 33 40 44 46 43 39 38 38 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 31 35 37 34 30 29 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT