* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982019 08/24/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 34 40 45 46 45 42 41 41 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 34 40 45 46 45 42 41 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 34 35 35 34 33 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 7 10 14 16 20 20 27 25 23 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 -2 -3 0 -6 -1 -5 2 2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 285 213 228 252 285 264 295 283 317 308 323 315 291 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.6 29.8 29.5 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.9 28.2 28.0 27.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 161 165 160 155 155 150 150 140 137 126 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 129 137 141 137 132 130 126 126 117 115 106 116 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.5 -54.1 -54.0 -53.6 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 6 6 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 59 63 67 65 65 61 59 60 60 59 55 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 3 4 -17 -16 3 -22 -7 -27 -23 -23 -20 -22 200 MB DIV 5 45 27 0 3 22 13 21 4 10 0 21 3 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 6 9 9 4 7 5 20 22 30 LAND (KM) 6 64 110 183 264 323 303 340 441 588 589 545 397 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 39 43 62 102 78 51 44 29 26 28 28 8 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 3. -1. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 15. 20. 21. 20. 17. 16. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 27.4 80.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982019 INVEST 08/24/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 64.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.43 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.74 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 19.0% 13.3% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 18.9% 11.0% 2.7% 0.8% 4.0% 3.8% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 12.8% 8.2% 3.9% 0.3% 1.3% 5.5% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982019 INVEST 08/24/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982019 INVEST 08/24/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 29 34 40 45 46 45 42 41 41 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 32 38 43 44 43 40 39 39 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 28 34 39 40 39 36 35 35 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 21 27 32 33 32 29 28 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT